15.11.05

GTA Poll Results Right Here: Interesting/Good News (But Don't Get Too Excited ...)

I continue to believe that opinion polls can be useful tools, and they are fun to look at and to track, but (a) they should not be taken as Gospel, and (b) they must not - in my humble opinion -form the basis of any party's strategy.

So please, keep that caveat in mind when you look at this poll from Environics.

Short version: the news isn't great, in that the CPC isn't leading, but things are looking a whole lot better than some doom-and-gloom types would have you believe for my team:

The survey of 943 residents conducted immediately after the release of the first report of the Gomery Commission shows that across the Greater Toronto Area, 42 percent of eligible and decided voters would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today. This represents a 9-point drop from the 51 percent of the vote that the Liberals won in the GTA in the June 2004 election, when they virtually swept the region. Both opposition parties have gained ground. The Conservative Party now has the support of 33 percent of GTA voters (up five points since the election); while the New Democratic Party now has the support of 21 percent (up six points since the election). One in ten (11%) GTA voters are undecided about which party might deserve their support.

(The MOE was +/- 3.3%, 95 times out of 100.)

The survey was actually conducted between 1 November - 8 November, so it's not exactly a quickie survey done the day after Gomery came out. Also noteworthy is the following:

There was no evidence of Liberal rebound over the course of the survey dates.

To compare this poll with the actual results from election '04:

  • The LPC has gone from 51% to 42% in the GTA ;
  • The CPC has gone from 28% to 33% ;
  • The NDP has gone from 15% to 21% ; and
  • "Other" (presumably GPC, though the poll doesn't say so) has gone from 6% to 4%.

Counting the ridings in the "GTA" as defined by Environics, the Libs won 37 of 44 seats, the CPC won 6, and the NDP won 1 (Jack Layton's).

Now, the not-so-hot news: in the "416", the CPC's in 3rd place (43% LPC, 28% NDP, 25% CPC, 3% GPC/Other). The ray of sunshine is that the CPC and the Grits are effectively tied in the "905" (44% LPC, 42% CPC), but damn, I wish we could make some headway "downtown". Speaking as a "downtowner" myself, all I can suggest to any 416-Tories in the room is, keep plugging away at the neighbourhood level ... try to win individual polls, and the ridings will follow.

So, all in all: generally good news. Now, in accordance with my stated policy re: opinion polls, I'll proceed to ignore it!

More later.

7 Comments:

At 10:57 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes Jason I live in Sarmite Bulte's
riding. Parkdale/High Park area. It
is hard to convince people in this area are pretty much set in their voting which is Liberal. And I think if it changed, it would become NDP. But there's so much media spin in the GTA with the Toronto Star, Globe, CBC, CTV, all of which support the liberals. It's
unfair really.

 
At 11:54 p.m., Blogger Jason Hickman said...

I hear ya, Anon, I hear ya ...

That said though, we just have to accept the fact that there are some (at least) outlets of the media that may not be friendly to us.

That's life. Nobody ever won an election by complainging about media bias. We just have to keep working on persuading the voters themselves, one by one if necessary, even if it feels like you're beating your head against the wall.

 
At 3:17 a.m., Blogger Candace said...

On the bright side, maybe a large percentage of those Liberal supporters will either stay home in disgust or "waste" their vote via some obsucure or independent candidate (which I have been known to do - I recall voting Rhino at least once, if not twice or more, in my life, although that was out of disgust for the PCs).

 
At 3:27 a.m., Blogger Candace said...

On the bright side, maybe a large percentage of those Liberal supporters will either stay home in disgust or "waste" their vote via some obsucure or independent candidate (which I have been known to do - I recall voting Rhino at least once, if not twice or more, in my life, although that was out of disgust for the PCs).

 
At 12:29 a.m., Blogger Miles Lunn said...

That was right after the Gomery report was released. Come election day, the Liberals will not only win most of the 416, but also most of the 905 belt. Harper is very unpopular in the GTA and this will prevent him from making any large breakthrough

 
At 11:42 a.m., Blogger Jason Hickman said...

Miles, perhaps you should re-read the middle portion of the story again. There was no real drop over the course of the week-long poll.

As for your prediction ... is that based more on hope, or expectation?

 
At 11:29 p.m., Blogger Miles Lunn said...

My comment on the 905 belt is based largely on expectation since if you look at the riding by riding result, the only areas the Tories really have a shot at picking up in is Niagara Peninsula (St. Catharines, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale), Halton (Burlington and Halton), Durham (Whitby-Oshawa). On the other hand they won't win any of the three Hamilton ridings, Oakville, any of the Mississauga or Brampton ridings, besides York-Simcoe, which they already hold, they won't pick up any of the York ridings, and Pickering-Scarborough East and Ajax-Pickering they won't win either. With few exceptions, I don't see much change from last time around so any riding won by more than 10% will probably go the same way as it did last time.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home