29.7.05

It Ain't All Bad ...

Here's a bit of welcome news (Tip o' the hat to Warren K. - and I know how that particular tinfoil hat feels, believe me.)

Now, the usual caveat about not getting too excited about polls, etc. applies. In fact, it applies even more so during the dog days of summer.

But still, a result this close after a pretty bad patch of political news from mid-May to mid-July isn't so bad.

Here are just a few highlights from the June-July Environics poll:

Nation-wide:

Liberals: 34% of eligible and decided Canadian voters (-2% from the last poll in March/April, within the m.o.e.)

Conservatives: 31% of e & d C v's (+ 1%, also well inside the m.o.e.)

New Democrats: 2 % (+ 1%)

Bloc Q.: 11% (unchanged)

One in ten (11%) Canadian voters remain undecided about which party might deserve their support (down from 13%).

Regional Highlights:

* The Libs are 11% ahead of the Tories in Atlantic Canada ... but that's down from a 16% lead last time.

* BQ at 51% in Quebec. Anyone have any bright ideas on how to bring that # down?

* In Toronto, it's 51% Libs / 27% CPC / 19% NDP - The Tories are taking a beating in ol' Hogtown (much to my chagrin, given that is where I'm hanging my hat these days) but perhaps surprisingly, the NDP is getting lapped by the Grits as well.

* In Ontario as a whole, the order of finish is the same, but it's a bit closer: 44 / 33 / 20. Given the big lean in T.O., that puts the rest of Ontario in play.

* In the West, Tories leading in MB / SK / AB, with a near-dead heat in BC (Libs up by 3% over the CPC - I wonder if that's due to any spill-over from the recent provincial election?).

Leadership:

Well, let's just say Stephen and Paul have some work to do, while Jack & Gilles have gone up the hill. Not to be churlish - oh, what the heck, I'll be churlish - but just maybe it's easier to look good on TV when you made it explicitly (BQ) or implicitly (NDP) clear that you have no delusions of forming or keeping government anytime soon. Of course, to be fair (sigh - it's my curse in life) some less-than-sparkling performances on the part of PM and SH may have had something to do with it.

The Last Word:

It's not as if the CPC gained a tonne of ground, or that the Libs have lost it, that brightens my mood a bit when I read this. It's that despite all the "bad stuff" that has hit Harper ever since Madam Butterfly (sorry, couldn't resist) floated across the floor, and ever since Grewal became the story instead of that fine gent in the PMO and the Minister of Health --- Harper (and other Conservatives) are still in the game. Enough of the crying towels, and for God's sake, enough of the backbiting (reasonable self-criticism's still ok, of course!).


More later.

3 Comments:

At 4:27 p.m., Anonymous The Fog is Clearing said...

The Environics Poll is useful in that you can deduct the number of voters questioned in Toronto and Montreal from those questioned in Ontario and Quebec as a whole.

You can therefore work out the percentages for the remainder of
those two provinces. They are as follows:

ONTARIO (excluding Toronto)

Conservative 37.9%
Liberal 34.6%
NDP 20.8%
Others 6.6%

Given that there are some seats in Northern Ontario where the Conservative never do well, these figures suggest a number of potential Conservative gains.

QUEBEC (excluding Montreal)

Bloc Quebecois 60.5%
Liberal 17.0%
Conservative 11.5%
NDP 10.3%
Others 0.4%

Not much hope here I'm afraid, though I believe there is one seat where the Conservatives have an outside chance.

Considering the rubbish that has been thrown at Harper, I think the Conservatives have held up quite well. I think people are beginning to see through the smoke screan thrown up by the MSM.

 
At 10:22 a.m., Blogger Jason Hickman said...

FogClearing, I hope you're right.

But that said, the CPC as a whole (me included) still has work to do.

My $0.02 are as follows: We need to get the platform, or as much as possible of it if we want to hold back a few surprises for the campaign, ready to be released NOW. That means getting it organised, making DAMN SURE the numbers add up, finding a reputable economist or two to sign off on it, etc.

Once it's ready, get it out there NOW and start selling it everywhere you can.

I agree with you that there are seats for the taking in ex-Toronto Ontario ... we just have to earn them.

 
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